# Aris Spanos

**Aris Spanos**

Professor

Wilson Schmidt Professor of Economics

Professor

Wilson Schmidt Professor of Economics

Contact:

Pamplin 3025

540-231-7707

Email Dr. Spanos

**Current Research Interests:**

My current research interests include econometrics; the philosophy and methodology of statistical inference and modeling; the foundations of statistics; data mining, pre-test bias and other methodological issues pertaining to empirical modeling; statistical adequacy, Mis-Specification (M-S) testing and respecification; resampling techniques and statistical adequacy; parametric vs. nonparametric modeling; Bayesian criticisms of frequentist inference; reliability and precision of statistical inference and the trustworthiness of empirical evidence; modeling speculative prices; revisiting the statistical foundations of cross-section and panel data models; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models and their statistical adequacy; the replication crisis and untrustworthy evidence; Big Data and Data Science, Machine Learning, Statistical Learning Theroy, and Graphical Causal Modeling.

Selected Bibliography:

Books: (Linked Above)

1. *Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modeling*, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986.

2. *Probability Theory and Statistical Inference: Econometric Modeling with Observational Data*, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999.

3. *Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science* [with D. G. Mayo], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2010.

4. *Probability Theory and Statistical Inference: Empirical Modeling with Observational Data*, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2019.

Selected Publicatons:

1. “The Simultaneous Equations Model Revisited: Statistical Adequacy and Identification,” Journal of Econometrics, 1990, 44, 87-105.

2. “On Modeling Heteroskedasticity: the Student’s t and Elliptical Linear Regression Models,” Econometric Theory, 1994, 10, 286-315.

3. “On Theory Testing in Econometrics: Modeling with Non-experimental Data,” Journal of Econometrics, 1995, 67, 189-226.

4. “On Normality and the Linear Regression Model”, Econometric Reviews, 1995, 14(2), 195-203.

5. “Towards a Unifying Methodological Framework for Econometric Modelling”, Economic Notes, 1988, pp. 107-34. Reprinted in Modelling Economic Series: Readings on the Methodology of Econometric Modeling, pp. 335-64, edited by C.W.J. Granger, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1990.

6. “Early Empirical Findings on the Consumption Function, Stylized Facts or Fiction: a Retrospective View,” Oxford Economic Papers, 1989, 41, pp. 150-169.

7. “On Re-reading Haavelmo: a Retrospective View of Econometric Modeling,” Econometric Theory 1989, 5, pp. pp. 405-429.

8. “Revisiting Data Mining: ‘Hunting’ with or without a License,” Journal of Economic Methodology, 2000, 7, pp. 231-264.

9. “On Modeling Speculative Prices: the Empirical Literature”, [with Elena Andreou and Nikitas Pittis], Journal of Economic Surveys, 15, 187-220, 2001.

10. “The Model Specification Problem from a Probabilistic Reduction Perspective,” [with Anya McGuirk], Journal of the American Agricultural Association, 2001, 83(5), pp. 1168-1176.

11 “The Problem of Near-Multicollinearity Revisited: Erratic vs. Systematic Volatility”, [with Anya McGuirk], Journal of Econometrics, 2002, 108, 365-393.

12. “Statistical Adequacy and the Testing of Trend versus Difference Stationarity,” [with Elena Andreou], Econometric Reviews, 2003, 22, 217-237.

13. “Methodology in Practice: Statistical Misspecification Testing” [with D. G. Mayo], Philosophy of Science, 2004, 71, 1007-1025.

14. “Severe Testing as a Basic Concept in a Neyman-Pearson Philosophy of Induction,” [with D. G. Mayo] The British Journal of the Philosophy of Science, 2006, 57: 323-357.

15. “Where Do Statistical Models Come From? Revisiting the Problem of Specification,”

pp. 98-119, The Second Erich L. Lehmann Symposium, Lecture Notes-Monograph Series, vol. 49, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2006.

16. “Econometrics in Retrospect and Prospect,” pp. 3-58 in Mills, T.C. and K. Patterson, New Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 1, MacMillan, London, 2006.

17. “The Student’s t Dynamic Linear Regression: Re-examining Volatility Modeling,” [with M. Heracleous], Advances in Econometrics, 2006, 20, 289-319.

18. “Revisiting the Omitted Variables Argument: Substantive vs. Statistical Adequacy,” Journal of Economic Methodology, 2006, 13: 179-218.

19. “The Instrumental Variables Method revisited: On the Nature and Choice of Optimal Instruments,” pp. 34-59 in Refinement of Econometric Estimation and Test Procedures, ed. by G. D. A. Phillips and E. Tzavalis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.

20. “Philosophical Scrutiny of Evidence of Risks: From Bioethics to Bioevidence,” [with D. G. Mayo], Philosophy of Science, 2006, 73 (5), 803-816.

21. “Curve-Fitting, the Reliability of Inductive Inference and the Error-Statistical Approach,” Philosophy of Science, 2007, 74: 1046-1066.

22. “Testing for Nonstationarity Using Maximum Entropy Resampling: A Misspecification Testing Perspective,” [with A. Koutris and M. Heracleous], Econometric Reviews, 2008, 27, 363-384.

23. “Statistics and Economics,” pp. 1129-1162 in the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd ed., 2008, Eds. S. N. Durlauf and L. E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, London.

24. “Linear vs. Log-linear Unit-Root Specification: An Application of Mis-specification Encompassing,” [with D. F. Hendry and J. J. Reade], Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2008, 70: 829-847.

25. “Revisiting Error-Autocorrelation Correction: Common Factor Restrictions and Granger Non-Causality,” [with A. McGuirk], Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009, 71: 259-282.

26. “The Pre-Eminence of Theory versus the European CVAR Perspective in Macroeconometric Modeling,” Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 3, 2009-10. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2009-10. Special issue on “Using Econometrics for Assessing Economic Models”

27. “Statistical Misspecification and the Reliability of Inference: the simple t-test in the presence of Markov dependence,” The Korean Economic Review, 2009, 25, 165-213.

28. “Akaike-type Information Criteria and the Reliability of Inference: Statistical Model Specification vs. Model Selection,” Journal of Econometrics, 158: 204-220, 2010.

29. The Discovery of Argon: A Case for Learning from Data? Philosophy of Science, 77: 359-380, 2010.

30. Is Frequentist Testing Vulnerable to the Base-Rate Fallacy? Philosophy of Science, 77: 565-583, 2010.

31. “Statistical Adequacy and the Trustworthiness of Empirical Evidence: Statistical vs. Substantive Information,” Economic Modelling, 27: 1436–1452, 2010.

32. “Error Statistics,” [with D. G. Mayo], pp. 173-208 in the Handbook of Philosophy of Science, vol. 7: Philosophy of Statistics, D. Gabbay, P. Thagard, and J. Woods (editors), Elsevier, 2011.

33. “Revisiting the Welch Uniform Model: A case for Conditional Inference?” Advances and Applications in Statistical Science, 5: 33-52, 2011.

34. “Mispaced Criticisms of Neyman-Pearson (N-P) Testing in the Case of Two Simple Hypotheses,” Advances and Applications in Statistical Science, 6: 229-242, 2011.

35. “Foundational Issues in Statistical Modeling: Statistical Model Specification and Validation,” Rationality, Markets and Morals, Vol. 2, 2011, 146–178, Special Topic: Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science

36 “Revisiting the Berger location model: Fallacious Confidence Interval or a Rigged Example?” Statistical Methodology, 9: 555-561, 2012

37. “A Frequentist Interpretation of Probability for Model-Based Inductive Inference,” Synthese, 190: 1555-1585, 2013.

38. “Philosophy of Econometrics,” pp. 329-393 the Handbook of Philosophy of Science, vol. 12: Philosophy of Economics, editor, U. Maki, general editors D. Gabbay, P. Thagard, and J. Woods, Elsevier, 2012.

39. “Who should be Afraid of the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox?” Philosophy of Science, 80: 73-93, 2013.

40. “The ‘Mixed Experiment’’ Example Revisited: Fallacious Frequentist Inference or an Improper Statistical Model?’’ Advances and Applications of Statistical Science, 6: 29-47, 2013.

41. “Revisiting the Likelihoodist Evidential Account,” Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice, 7: 187-195, 2013.

42. “Recurring Controversies about P values and Confidence Intervals Revisited,” Ecology, 95(3), 2014, pp. 645-651.

43. “Reflections on the LSE Tradition in Econometrics: a Student’s Perspective,” (Economia. History, Methodology, Philosophy, 4(3): 343-380, 2014.

44. “Revisiting Haavelmo’s Structural Econometrics: Bridging the Gap between Theory and Data,” Journal of Economic Methodology, 22: 171-196, 2015.

45. "Error Statistical Modeling and Inference: where Methodology Meets Ontology" [with D.G. Mayo], *Synthese*, **192**: 3533-3555, 2015.

46. “Why the Decision-Theoretic Perspective Misrepresents Frequentist Inference”, pp. 3-28 in *Advances in Statistical Methodologies and Their Applications to Real Problems*, ISBN 978-953-51-4962-0. [2017]

47. “Mis-Specification Testing in Retrospect”, *Journal of Economic Surveys*, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 541–577. [2018].

48. “Near-collinearity in Linear Regression Revisited: the Numerical vs. the Statistical Perspective”, *Communications in Statistics, Theory and Methods*, 2019* 48*(22): 5492-5516.

49. “On Modeling Heterogeneity in Linear Models using Trend Polynomials”, (with M. Michaelides), *Economic Modelling*, 2019, 85: 74-86; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.05.008.

50. “What Foundations for Statistical Modeling and Inference?’ *Œconomia – History / Methodology / Philosophy*, 2019, 9(4): 832-860. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/oeconomia/7521

51. “Yule-Simpson's paradox: the probabilistic versus the empirical conundrum’’, Statistical Methods & Applications, 30: 605-635. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10260-020-00536-4, 2020.

52. “Methodology of Macroeconometrics”, in the *Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance*, Oxford University Press. doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.175, 2021, Edited by Avinash Dixit, Sebastian Edwards, and Kenneth Judd.

53. “Philosophy of Econometrics” in *The Routledge Handbook of Philosophy of Economics*, (Routledge Handbooks in Philosophy) 1st Edition, edited by Conrad Heilmann, Julian Reiss, 2021.

54. “Bernoulli's golden theorem in retrospect: error probabilities and trustworthy evidence", *Synthese*, 2021, 1-28.

55. “Revisiting noncentrality-based confidence intervals, error probabilities and estimation-based effect sizes”, *Journal of Mathematical Psychology*, 2021, 104, p. 102580.

56. “Statistical Modeling and Inference in the Era of Data Science and Graphical Causal Modeling”, *Journal of Economic Surveys*, 2021, DOI: 10.1111/joes.12483

57. “Severity and Trustworthy Evidence: Foundational Problems versus Misuses of Frequentist Testing”, *Philosophy of Science*, 2022, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2021.23.