# Aris Spanos

**Aris Spanos**

Professor

Wilson Schmidt Professor of Economics

Professor

Wilson Schmidt Professor of Economics

Contact:

Pamplin 3025

540-231-7707

Email Dr. Spanos

**Current Research Interests:**

My current research interests include econometrics; the philosophy and methodology of statistical inference and modeling; foundational issues in statistics; data mining, pre-test bias, and other methodological issues of empirical modeling, including the large/small n problem and statistical results vs. evidence; statistical adequacy vs. goodness-of-fit/prediction; Mis-Specification (M-S) testing and respecification; parametric vs. nonparametric modeling; Bayesian criticisms of frequentist inference; reliability of statistical inference and the trustworthiness of empirical evidence; modeling speculative prices; revisiting the statistical foundations of cross-section and panel data models; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models and their credibility vis-a-vis the observed data; the replication crisis and the untrustworthiness of evidence; Big Data and Data Science, Machine Learning, Statistical Learning Theory, and Graphical Causal Modeling.

__Selected Bibliography:__

__Books: (Linked Above)__

1. *Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modeling*, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986.

2. *Probability Theory and Statistical Inference: Econometric Modeling with Observational Data*, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999.

3. *Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability, and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science* [with D. G. Mayo], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2010.

4. *Probability Theory and Statistical Inference: Empirical Modeling with Observational Data*, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2019.

__Selected Publicatons:__

1. "Liquidity as a Latent Variable: an Application of the MIMIC Model", *Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics*, 1984, 46: 125-243.

2. "The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments: a Critical Appraisal of some Empirical Evidence", *Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics*, 1984, 46: 329-340, (with M. Taylor).

3. "Statistical Adequacy and Panel Data Modelling," *Industria* (in Italian), 47: 105-123, 1988.

4. "Towards a Unifying Methodological Framework for Econometric Modelling", *Economic Notes*, 1988, pp. 107-34. Reprinted in *Modelling Economic Series: Readings on the Methodology of Econometric Modeling*, pp. 335-64, edited by C.W.J. Granger, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1990.

5. "On re-reading Haavelmo: a retrospective view of econometric modeling", *Econometric Theory*, 1989, 5: 405-429.

6. "Early empirical findings on the consumption function, stylized facts or fiction: a retrospective view", *Oxford Economic Papers*, 1989, 41: 150-169.1.

7. "The Simultaneous Equations Model Revisited: Statistical Adequacy and Identification," Journal of Econometrics, 1990, 44, 87-105.

8. "Unit Roots and their Dependence on the Implicit Conditioning Information Set," Advances in Econometrics, 1990, 8: 271-292.

9. "On Modeling Heteroskedasticity: the Student's t and Elliptical Linear Regression Models," Econometric Theory, 1994, 10, 286-315.

10. "On Theory Testing in Econometrics: Modeling with Non-experimental Data," Journal of Econometrics, 1995, 67, 189-226.

11. "On Normality and the Linear Regression Model", Econometric Reviews, 1995, 14(2), 195-203.

12. "Revisiting Data Mining: ‘Hunting’ with or without a License," Journal of Economic Methodology, 2000, 7, pp. 231-264.

13. "On Modeling Speculative Prices: the Empirical Literature", [with Elena Andreou and Nikitas Pittis], Journal of Economic Surveys, 15, 187-220, 2001.

14. "The Model Specification Problem from a Probabilistic Reduction Perspective," [with Anya McGuirk], Journal of the American Agricultural Association, 2001, 83(5), pp. 1168-1176.

15. "The Problem of Near-Multicollinearity Revisited: Erratic vs. Systematic Volatility", [with Anya McGuirk], Journal of Econometrics, 2002, 108, 365-393.

16. "Parametric versus Non-parametric Inference: Statistical Models and Simplicity", ch. 11, pp. 181-206 in Simplicity, Inference and Modelling: Keeping it Sophisticatedly Simple, edited by A. Zellner, H. A. Keuzenkamp and M. McAleer, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

17. "Statistical Adequacy and the Testing of Trend versus Difference Stationarity," [with Elena Andreou], Econometric Reviews, 2003, 22, 217-237.

18. "Methodology in Practice: Statistical Misspecification Testing" [with D. G. Mayo], Philosophy of Science, 2004, 71, 1007-1025.

19. "Severe Testing as a Basic Concept in a Neyman-Pearson Philosophy of Induction," [with D. G. Mayo] The British Journal of the Philosophy of Science, 2006, 57: 323-357.

20. "Where Do Statistical Models Come From? Revisiting the Problem of Specification," pp. 98-119, The Second Erich L. Lehmann Symposium, Lecture Notes-Monograph Series, vol. 49, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2006.

21. "Econometrics in Retrospect and Prospect," pp. 3-58 in Mills, T.C. and K. Patterson, *New Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics*, vol. 1, MacMillan, London, 2006.

22. "The Student's t Dynamic Linear Regression: Re-examining Volatility Modeling," [with M. Heracleous], *Advances in Econometrics*, 2006, 20, 289-319.

23. "Revisiting the Omitted Variables Argument: Substantive vs. Statistical Adequacy," *Journal of Economic Methodology*, 2006, 13: 179-218.

24. "The Instrumental Variables Method revisited: On the Nature and Choice of Optimal Instruments," pp. 34-59 in *Refinement of Econometric Estimation and Test Procedures*, ed. by G. D. A. Phillips and E. Tzavalis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.

25. "Philosophical Scrutiny of Evidence of Risks: From Bioethics to Bioevidence," [with D. G. Mayo], *Philosophy of Science*, 2006, 73 (5), 803-816.

26. "Curve-Fitting, the Reliability of Inductive Inference and the Error-Statistical Approach," *Philosophy of Science*, 2007, 74: 1046-1066.

27. "Testing for Nonstationarity Using Maximum Entropy Resampling: A Misspecification Testing Perspective," [with A. Koutris and M. Heracleous], *Econometric Reviews*, 2008, 27, 363-384.

28. "Statistics and Economics," pp. 1129-1162 in the *New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics*, 2nd ed., 2008, Eds. S. N. Durlauf and L. E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, London.

29. "Linear vs. Log-linear Unit-Root Specification: An Application of Mis-specification Encompassing," [with D. F. Hendry and J. J. Reade], *Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics*, 2008, 70: 829-847.

30. "Revisiting Error-Autocorrelation Correction: Common Factor Restrictions and Granger Non-Causality," [with A. McGuirk], *Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics*, 2009, 71: 259-282.

31. "The Pre-Eminence of Theory versus the European CVAR Perspective in Macroeconometric Modeling," Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 3, 2009. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2009-10. Special issue on "*Using Econometrics for Assessing Economic Models*"

32. "Statistical Misspecification and the Reliability of Inference: the simple t-test in the presence of Markov dependence," *The Korean Economic Review*, 2009, 25, 165-213.

33. Spanos, A. (2010) "Statistical Adequacy and the Trustworthiness of Empirical Evidence: Statistical vs. Substantive Information", *Economic Modelling*, 27: 1436--1452.

34. "Akaike-type Information Criteria and the Reliability of Inference: Statistical Model Specification vs. Model Selection," *Journal of Econometrics*, 158: 204-220, 2010.

35. The Discovery of Argon: A Case for Learning from Data? *Philosophy of Science*, 77: 359-380, 2010.

36. Is Frequentist Testing Vulnerable to the Base-Rate Fallacy? *Philosophy of Science*, 77: 565-583, 2010.

37. "Statistical Adequacy and the Trustworthiness of Empirical Evidence: Statistical vs. Substantive Information," *Economic Modelling*, 27: 1436--1452, 2010.

38. "Error Statistics," [with D. G. Mayo], pp. 173-208 in the *Handbook of Philosophy of Science, vol. 7: Philosophy of Statistics*, D. Gabbay, P. Thagard, and J. Woods (editors), Elsevier, 2011.

39. "Revisiting the Welch Uniform Model: A Case for Conditional Inference?" *Advances and Applications in Statistical Science*, 5: 33-52, 2011.

40. "Misplaced Criticisms of Neyman-Pearson (N-P) Testing in the Case of Two Simple Hypotheses," *Advances and Applications in Statistical Science*, 6: 229-242, 2011.

41. "Foundational Issues in Statistical Modeling: Statistical Model Specification and Validation," Rationality, Markets and Morals, Vol. 2, 2011, 146--178, Special Topic: *Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science.
42 "Revisiting the Berger location model: Fallacious Confidence Interval or a Rigged Example?" Statistical Methodology, 9: 555-561, 2012
* 43. "Philosophy of Econometrics," pp. 329-393 the

*Handbook of Philosophy of Science, vol. 12: Philosophy of Economics*, editor, U. Maki, general editors D. Gabbay, P. Thagard, and J. Woods, Elsevier, 2012.

44. "A Frequentist Interpretation of Probability for Model-Based Inductive Inference,"

*Synthese*, 190: 1555-1585, 2013.

45. "Who should be Afraid of the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox?"

*Philosophy of Science*, 80: 73-93, 2013.

46. "The `Mixed Experiment" Example Revisited: Fallacious Frequentist Inference or an Improper Statistical Model?"

*Advances and Applications of Statistical Science*, 6: 29-47, 2013.

47. "Revisiting the Likelihoodist Evidential Account,"

*Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice*, 2013, 7: 187-195.

48. "Recurring Controversies about P values and Confidence Intervals Revisited,"

*Ecology*, 2014, 95(3): 645-651.

49. "Reflections on the LSE Tradition in Econometrics: a Student's Perspective," (

*Economia. History, Methodology, Philosophy*, 4(3): 343-380, 2014.

50. "Revisiting Haavelmo's Structural Econometrics: Bridging the Gap between Theory and Data,"

*Journal of Economic Methodology*, 22: 171-196, 2015.

51. "Error Statistical Modeling and Inference: where Methodology Meets Ontology" [with D.G. Mayo],

*Synthese*, 192: 3533-3555, 2015.

52. "Why the Decision-Theoretic Perspective Misrepresents Frequentist Inference", pp. 3-28 in

*Advances in Statistical Methodologies and Their Applications to Real Problems*, ISBN 978-953-51-4962-0. [2017]

53. "Mis-Specification Testing in Retrospect",

*Journal of Economic Surveys*, Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 541--577. [2018].

54. "Near-collinearity in Linear Regression Revisited: the Numerical vs. the Statistical Perspective",

*Communications in Statistics, Theory and Methods*, 2019 48(22): 5492-5516.

55. "On Modeling Heterogeneity in Linear Models using Trend Polynomials", (with M. Michaelides),

*Economic Modelling*, 2019, 85: 74-86; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.05.008.

56. "What Foundations for Statistical Modeling and Inference?'

*Œconomia*¬¬-- History / Methodology / Philosophy, 2019, 9(4): 832-860. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/oeconomia/7521

57. “What Foundations for Statistical Modeling and Inference?” About Ian Hacking, Logic of Statistical Inference, and Deborah G. Mayo, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars.

*Œconomia. History, Methodology, Philosophy*, 2019, (9-4), 833-860.

58. "Yule-Simpson's paradox: the probabilistic versus the empirical conundrum",

*Statistical Methods & Applications*, 2020, 30: 605-635. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10260-020-00536-4.

59. "Methodology of Macroeconometrics", in the

*Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance*, Oxford University Press, Edited by Avinash Dixit, Sebastian Edwards, and Kenneth Judd. doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.175, 2021.

60. "Philosophy of Econometrics" in The Routledge

*Handbook of Philosophy of Economics*, (Routledge Handbooks in Philosophy) 1st Edition, edited by Conrad Heilmann, Julian Reiss, 2021.

61. "Bernoulli's golden theorem in retrospect: error probabilities and trustworthy evidence",

*Synthese*, 2021, 1-28.

62. "Revisiting noncentrality-based confidence intervals, error probabilities and estimation-based effect sizes",

*Journal of Mathematical Psychology*, 2021, 104, p. 102580.

63. "Statistical Modeling and Inference in the Era of Data Science and Graphical Causal Modeling",

*Journal of Economic Surveys*, 2022, 36(5), 1251-1287. DOI: 10.1111/joes.12483

64. "Severity and Trustworthy Evidence: Foundational Problems versus Misuses of Frequentist Testing",

*Philosophy of Science*, 2022, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2021.23.

65. "Model-based Statistical Induction and the Replication Crisis”,

*Journal of Quantitative Economics*, 2022, 20(1), 133-159.

66."Model validation and DSGE modeling" (with N. Poudyal),

*Econometrics*, 2022, 10(2):17.

67. "Revisiting the Large n (Sample Size) Problem: How to Avert Spurious Significance Results",

*Stats*, 2023, 6(4), 1323-1338. https://doi.org/10.3390/stats6040081

68."How the Post-Data Severity Converts Testing Results into Evidence for or against Pertinent Inferential Claims",

*Entropy*, 2024, 26, 95. https://doi.org/10.3390/e26010095